Startup Survivor Bias: The Success Stories You See vs. The 95% You Don't

Let's be honest: starting a business is the corporate equivalent of jumping out of a plane while knitting your own parachute. Most people hit the ground. Hard. And the statistics love to remind us, with the cheerful enthusiasm of a tax auditor.

The German Reality:  It's Not As Cozy As You Think

We Germans like to pride ourselves on engineering precision, the Mittelstand fairy tale, and the comforting illusion that our social safety net will catch us if we fall.

Spoiler: It catches the person (most of the time), not the company.

Here's what the data actually shows:

• Roughly 50% of all German companies are gone within the first five years. The latest data from Creditreform shows 11,900 corporate insolvencies in H1 2025, the highest level in ten years.

• In the first nine months of 2024, 47 out of every 10,000 companies filed for insolvency,  the highest rate since the financial crisis. By year-end 2024, over 22,400 companies declared insolvency, with financial damage reaching €56 billion.

• The overwhelming majority of German businesses will never crack €1 million in annual revenue. While exact German figures are harder to pin down, the pattern mirrors global data showing most companies operating at modest revenue levels.

And the real kicker?

Even if you do hit €1 million, congratulations as you've now entered the exclusive club where 90-95% will never see €5 million in revenues. The €10 million club? That's invitation-only, population:

< 1% of everyone who ever filled out a “Gewerbeanmeldung”.

Meanwhile in the Land of the Free…

Across the Atlantic they love to brag about unicorn dreams and 10x exits. The reality is somehow even more entertaining:

• 65.3% of U.S. businesses are dead by year ten, actually worse than Germany's carnage rate. Recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data confirms that only about 34% of businesses survive their first decade.

• Approximately 91% of U.S. small businesses never reach $1 million in revenue. That's right , the magic million that sounds like a starter pistol? For most founders, it's the finish line.

• The drop-off from $1M to $10M? Fewer than 1% of all businesses ever reach $10 million in annual revenue. At that point you're more likely to get struck by lightning while holding a winning lottery ticket.

So yes, while we Germans are busy writing perfectly formatted business plans and waiting six weeks for a signature from the Finanzamt or to get a KfW Founders Loan, the Americans are burning cash at warp speed and somehow still managing to fail slightly faster.

Why Do So Few Actually Make It?

Because scaling isn't about working harder.

It's about working on the right things, in the right order, with cash in the bank and a sales engine that actually rings the register. Or, most important: Cash matters. Always.

Research consistently shows:

• 42% die because the market simply doesn't need what they're selling

• 29% run out of cash (shocker and see my statement above)

• 23% fail because they never figured out repeatable, profitable customer acquisition

In Germany we have an extra spice: energy prices that remain more than twice as high as other OECD countries, bureaucracy that ages you in dog years, and a cultural allergy to bragging about revenue (until someone asks "Und, wie läuft's?" at the family barbecue).

The Good News (Yes, There Is Some)

The same statistics that crush dreams also create opportunity.

If 91% of U.S. businesses never hit $1 million (and similar patterns hold in Germany), being in the top 9% is actually, achievable. If another 90-95% stall before €5-10 million, the competition at the next level is refreshingly thin.

All you need is:

1. A product many desperately want

2. A repeatable way to find those people

3. Margins fat enough to survive the inevitable German winter (both meteorological and economic)

Do that, and you'll be one of the annoying success stories everyone secretly hates at the next Stammtisch or family dinner.

Final Thought

Building a real company, one that pays your bills, employs people, and maybe even lets you take a vacation without checking Teams every ten minutes, is still one of the hardest things you can do with your life. Think deeply about it before you start it.

But the numbers don't lie: the graveyard is enormous, yet the podium has plenty of empty space at the top. So go build something that actually makes money.

P.S. If you're reading this and thinking "Yeah, but my idea is different" – congratulations, you're already thinking like 99% of the people who failed. The 1% are too busy selling.

P:S.S Let me finish with a quote from Nassim Nicholas Taleb: “Success is always visible; failure is mostly silent.”